All Americans To Have Mobile Phones by 2013

[qi:83] Update: Nearly 84 percent of the U.S. population will have mobile phones by the end of 2007, and that number is going to barrel past 100 percent in 2013, according to SNL Kagan. SNL Kagan expects total industry average revenue per user (ARPU) to grow at an inflation-adjusted compound annual growth rate of 1.5 percent over the next 10 years, from $52.38 today to $61.09 by 2017.

No wonder every single carrier is counting on data for growth that keeps Wall Street happy. The research group predicts that data revenue will grow 14 percent (compounded) over the next 10 years and will become 22 percent of service revenue, compared with 10 percent today. Now if the carriers could only come up with some reasons for us to actually use their data networks.

Chetan Sharma writes in to make a few points, and showing me error of my ways.

1) 100 percent penetration doesn’t mean that ALL Americans will have cell phones. 18 percent to 20 percent of the 100 percent will be dual/multiple subscriptions.

2) Data contribution is already 17 percent, so who knows what will happen in 10 years but it will be surely passing 20 percent by end of this year and 25 percent by next year (Verizon is already at 19 percent).