Forecast: TV, Internet Will Lead Advertising Back Up As Print Wanes

Publicis Groupe’s ZenithOptimedia is revising up its forecast of 2010 global advertising growth from 0.9 percent to 2.2 percent – its second consecutive upgrade following 18 months of downgrades.

Across the media, it’s largely thanks to an anticipated 4.3 percent more TV ad money and 12.9 percent more online ad spending. But newspapers and magazines are each forecast to lose about four percent of their ad income this year.

Multimedia share: TV, which captures forty percent of all ad spend, is expected to gain more and more share over the next few years. ZenithOptimedia reckons the internet will find 13.9 percent of all ad money this year, rising to 17.1 percent by 2012. But newspapers, magazines and radio will find their share decline over that period. The internet already overtook magazines for ad share in 2009, when it hit 12.6 percent.

Internet figs: Specifically, the internet is forecast to make $62.6 billion from ads this year, rising to $71.9 billion in 2011 and $83.9 billion in 2012. The medium’s “engine of growth” is paid search, which took half of all online ad dollars last year and is forecast to increase that share over the next few years.

Online display spending has fallen from 33 percent in 2008 to 32 percent in 2009 and is expected to decline to 31.7 percent in 2010. But Zenith reckons online video ads and other new formats will kickstart a turnaround in 2011 and 2012.

Geographies: North America is forecast to be down 1.5 percent this year, western Europe up 0.37 percent, Asia-Pacific up 5.9 percent, central and eatern Europe up 5.6 percent, Latin America up 9.2 percent and Africa/MiddleEast/Rest Of World will be up 6.3 percent.