Various market analysts now tracking Jive, and tomorrow we’ll hear 2013 results

Jive Software reports full 2013 and fourth quarter results tomorrow after the markets close, and I have a suspicion we will be seeing an uptick in the stock price, which has fallen precipitously in the last year.
Screenshot 2014-02-10 08.30.50
That slide in August was directly the result of Tony Zingale’s statements about missing sales for the previous quarter, and led me to wonder whether the company had a standalone future (see Can Jive survive alone?):

“Our second quarter financial results met or exceeded our guidance on both the top and bottom line. However, the evolution of the market toward the mainstream buyer, combined with our go-to-market execution challenges, led to longer than expected sales cycles at the end of the quarter.
[…]
“While the move to mainstream buyers is not without new challenges, we believe the reward for winning this opportunity will be substantial. We expect the Company to deliver improved execution in the second half of the year, and we believe that Jive is well positioned to be the pure play winner in the social business market.”

I also suggested that a possible changing of the guard might be in the works, with the hiring of Elisa Steel from Microsoft (see Elisa Steele assumes new role as Jive’s EVP of Strategy and CMO):

An appointment like EVP Strategy and CMO looks like a short term test of a candidate for CEO. Tony Zingale, the current CEO of Jive, may be at work on a succession plan. The company went public in early 2012 and then  subsequently raised over $12 million in post-IPO venture funds. Most critically, Jive has seen a sharp drop in its stock price since August, when analysts soured on the company after disappointing results since the IPO, and where the company blamed ‘sloppy execution’ in the final stages of major deals as the rationale for poor results. It may be the board wants new leadership for Jive.

I’m impressed with the new emphasis on integration of Jive with  Gmail, Google Drive, Chatter, Yammer, Evernote, Dropbox and others, which lowers barriers to use and increases the value of JIve in the workplace. (A good fit with Dropbox aspirations in the enterprise?)
We’ll have to see how that plays out in the market and the board room. But I have heard some rumors that sales are up, and that Jive consulting partners cannot hire fast enough to keep up with growing demand. There have also been some reports about stock bets being placed on a near term spike in Jive’s stock price. I recently heard a hint of big news to be announced in March. But none of those rumors seem to be reflected in the stock price, which has been steadily declining.
But in the past weeks, Deutsche Bank announced it was initiating coverage of Jive at Hold, and most recently BMO Capital started to follow Jive at Market Perform, setting guidance at a $10 share price, above today’s $8.73. I have to believe this new coverage is a sign of an upside in coming news.