Box trading at 44% above the IPO price after one day

The Box IPO has taken place, and as predicted, the company’s valuation has been affirmed as around the $2.4 billion mark set in the company’s most recent private funding last summer, trading at 44% above yesterday’s IPO price of $14 per share. As I wrote on January 11, in What the Box IPO says about the 2015 market,

Other enterprise deals valued above $1 billion — like Hortonworks and New Relic — exploded in their IPOs, so there is a possibility for Box to see the same expansion of value. So filing at the to $11-$13 range may be a head fake, intended to open up airspace above the market’s expectations.

I still maintain that the file sync-and-share marketplace is rapidly moving towards total commoditization — meaning ‘free’ as an aspect of other revenue-producing solutions from the giants, like Google, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft — but that doesn’t mean that players like Box and Dropbox have no value. But ultimately, Box may be worth less than the $2.4 billion the market is betting on today. But in the meantime, the stock will probably rise until some market consolidating events take place.